Big Orca Energy
Attempted vacation throws business world into paralysis, self-checkouts are terrible, electrified ticks, an uprising sporting salmon hats, vivid dreams of mechanically-assisted mortadella
Hi there!
Greetings from the other side of our Canada Day hiatus!
We weren’t the only ones to take a hiatus - Matt Levine over at Bloomberg took his annual vacation, and as is the running gag in the business world, it was immediately derailed. Again. It’s nice when there are at least some consistencies in the business world right now, even if it’s just one persons futile attempt at a holiday. If you’ve spent the past two weeks trying to close a deal that stubbornly refuses to close, had trouble coordinating that meeting, or just generally feel like the business world is in some sort of semi-depression - it might just be because Matt Levine is at an all-inclusive resort. Statistics Canada also chose Matt Levine’s attempted time-off as the moment to release the latest Labour numbers.
The Canadian economy added 60,000 jobs in June - again, far more than economists figured - but given the relative increase in population there’s actually been an increase in unemployment from 5.2% in May to 5.4%. The Labour market is ‘softening’ though, which means good things for inflation, but it might not be ‘softening’ quick enough for the Bank of Canada - who are now looking increasingly likely to add another .25% on the rates next week. More interest-induced pain is probably predicted. Sorry about that. Call your mortgage broker.
Over in the retail sector, discomfort is growing over the levels of ‘theft’ happening with self-checkout machines - machines originally deployed to reduce labour costs and boost profits, but that incredibly rely on a nuanced combination of (a) honesty (b) becoming a part-time expert in barcode scanning and SKU code entering (c) trying to scan / input 40 items from a cart into an area smaller than a sheet of office paper (d) not confusing what you scanned with what you just balanced awkwardly in an unstable pile, and (e) not attempting any of this in a rush and / or with a small child. Throw all of this into a cost of living crisis and…yeah maybe relying on self-checkouts for inventory management isn’t such a good idea. CBC reports that:
“Retailers estimated that as much as 23 per cent of their store losses were due to a combination of theft and customer error at self-checkouts. Two-thirds of the retailers said self-checkout-related losses were a growing concern.”
Self-checkouts have pretty high cognitive loads and many are designed poorly from a user point of view, so true theft aside, maybe we just need to rethink how customer facing technology is designed, deployed, and for what reason? If 23% of your inventory losses are 100% down to how people use a machine…maybe the machine…is the big problem? Just a thought.
Speaking of big problems, science has proven this week that ticks have figured out how to use static electricity to jump onto their hosts. We can blame the climate for the agressive increase in the global tick population, but in some ways you have to hand it to the ticks for managing to leverage the power of 750 Volts as part of their relentless blood-lust campaign. Meanwhile, in the (increasingly dangerous) undersea, Orcas - recently rebranded from Killer Whales to soften their public profile for some unknown reason - have returned to type by apparently coordinating an #orcauprising. Attacking boats, starting mosh pits, wearing salmon as hats - this is the Hot Orca Summer no-one is asking for right now - but they are bigger than us with teeth, so we must respect it - regardless of their politics.
Stay out of the ocean. And the bushes.
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The Data Room 🤖
The Data Room has finally lost shared-password access to Netflix, and has spent the Canada Day weekend apparently glued to HBO instead.
Ban all the things
HBO’s White Lotus gave us this romanticized idea of an Italian vacation with vespas, and Jenifer Coolidge doing her best Monica Vitti impression, but it left out one of the more current trends going around the country: banning stuff.
Italy has had both hands on the ban hammer lately – Italian developers saw a quick 50% decline in productivity a few days after ChatGPT was nixed, and they’ve scattered the world’s dreams of mechanically-assisted mortadella. Lab-grown meat is now a banned substance in the boot-shaped country, in order to “preserve food heritage” Italy has decided to hand out fines of up to €60,000 if anyone is caught with some synthetic soppressata, simulated salami, or pseudo prosciutto. Lab grown meat is the next step in the evolution of plant-based proteins, and there’s huge potential for Canada to become one of the largest players in this now illicit industry. It’s not just the gym bros who want to bench the carbs anymore, protein demand has skyrocketed over the years, and it’s estimated that by 2054 global demand will double to 943.5 million metric tons. Options for alternative (non-meat) proteins are also seeing a boom, sales and production are expected to grow 14% annually, encompassing ⅓ of the market. 40% of Canadians are trying to eat more plant-based foods, and that’s good news for the Prairies: they’re changing from a breadbasket to a beanbox (that doesn’t really have the same ring to it).
Canada, specifically the Canadian Prairies, produces more pulses (a blanket term for the seeds of legumes) than anywhere else in the world, and we’re nowhere close to slowing down. In 2022 dried pea production grew an astonishing 52% to 3.4 million tonnes, and lentils by 43% to 2.3 million tonnes.
It seems that the prairies are poised to prioritize pulse protein production providing plenty of profit. Italy’s loss can be our gain, as the world’s diet shifts Canadian legumes are becoming a world-wide staple for millions, if not billions.
Market at-a-glance 📈
BOC Indicators (Link):
BOC Prime Rate: 6.95%
BOC Unemployment Rate: 5.4%
BOC CPI Inflation Rate: 4.4%
BOC $USD Exchange Rate (Link):
Low: 1.3219 CAD [0.7565 USD]
Average: 1.3283 CAD [0.7528 USD]
High: 1.3348 CAD [0.7492 USD]
Best GIC Rates (Link):
1-year GIC: 5.25%
3-year GIC: 5.23%
5-year GIC: 5.00%
Best 5Y Mortgage Rates (Link):
Variable: 5.65%
Fixed: 4.94%
Prime Rates (Link):
TD Bank: 6.95%
BMO: 6.95%
RBC: 6.95%
Scotiabank: 6.95%
CIBC: 6.95%
National Bank: 6.95%
CRA Canadian Pension Plan Rate: 5.95%
CRA Employment Insurance Rate: 1.63%
CRA Minimum Wage per Province: Link