What a total wash-out
Climate-Apocalypse Season 3 plot-twist [spoiler alert], avoid in-house bookkeeping at all costs (the costs being $7.6M), 'Long Boom' failure, data fraud statically linked to Toronto residency shocker.
Hi there!
In the UK, the end of July traditionally means you’re entering into something called ‘silly season’ where ‘real news’ all but vanishes, businesses mentally adjust to ‘beach mode’, and the average human brain turns feral in the heat, craving ice cream at 7pm daily. In France (and across Southern Europe), August traditionally heralds the shut-down of literally everything useful everywhere for four sun-soaked weeks of Mediterranean swims, enforced Spritz consumption and competitive boules.
These days, deep-summer signals the opening of ‘Climate-Apocalypse Season’. And Season 3 (?) is shaping up to be a total doozy with some crazy plot-twists. Europe is ablaze under a rolling Mediterranean heat-wave. The South - and now MidWest - of the US are trapped under a punishing ‘heat dome’. In Canada we’ve had massive, uncontainable country-wide wildfires, tornados where there shouldn’t be tornados - and to now add to the ever-unbelievable narrative - we have Nova Scotian province-wide flash flooding, just weeks on the heels of blazing forests and properties.
Post-plague inflation, market swings and rising operational costs aside, Capital-C Climate is now becoming the big threat to everyone - including Small Business. It’s already a real threat to insurers. And if there’s one thing we can be sure of in these unsure times, it’s that insurers follow the numbers, and they don’t lose out. You can be a climate-denier all you want, but if your insurer refuses to cover your business or property, or your rates start to rise steeply - then one way or another you’re going to be dealing with the reality of changing climate data.
Flooding - not wildfires - makes up the bulk of Canadian insurance claims. Around 10% of Canadian homes and businesses are at threat from flooding, but as the recent Nova Scotian floods have shown - traditional ‘flood zones’ don’t matter anymore. And when places originally safe from flooding…err…flood - things get complicated. It’s not about ‘how close is my property to the river’ anymore - it’s about the broader associated loss of earnings, forced closures, city infrastructure collapse, staffing issues, land viability, failed crops, delivery delays and prolonged utility failures.
Climate now affects every business - either directly or indirectly - and that’s just a sadly proven fact. And while global governments truly control how impactful climate will become in the coming years through emissions, trade and energy - it’s going to come down to each and every Small Business to work out how they can at least prepare for the inevitable start of Season 4.
Because, in all honesty, we just don’t know how bad it’s all going to get.
And finally…
Why you should not use in-house bookkeepers - entirely avoidable Nova Scotian $7.6M fraud uncovered in Halifax Real Estate empire. Link
The curse of the ‘Long Boom’ - a must read article with some scary foresights and rose-tinted 2000’s economy nostalgia. Link
Marketing is less memorable now because regulations are tougher. Link
Some unexpectedly good (?) Canadian climate news. Link
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The Data Room 🤖
The Data Room is back on it’s traditional beat - worrying folks about real-life data fraud using actual facts.
This is a sign to change your passwords
New data released yesterday show that 1 in 6 Canadians have been victims of fraud over the previous 5 years. According to the The General Social Survey, cases of fraud have been off the charts, and are rarely reported.
The General Social Survey (GSS) included some new questions on their survey and found out that fraud is as common as living in Toronto.
Self-reported data were collected for the first time and showed that nearly all cases of fraud (90%) were left unreported to the police, and it’s a much more common occurrence than we’ve previously suspected.
The GSS claimed that Canadians lost $16 billion in five years directly due to fraud, that’s 3.2 b per year and only 0.8 away from X’s new valuation. Before you jump out of your seat, this is a perfect example of why it’s important to look at average and median when evaluating any statistic: the average value of losses was over $5000, but the median was only $600. That means that there are some huge outliers in this dataset, with 3% of fraud victims losing anywhere between $10,000 to $100,000, and the unfortunate 0.5% getting scammed for $100,000+. Even though 35% of the self-reported fraud victims ended up not losing anything, it still shows that we have a real problem with the theft of personal information.90% of fraud cases were indicated to have started from someone’s personal information falling into the wrong hands, and this isn’t surprising considering that only 6.6% of Canadians feel that their personal information is well protected.
So what’s the best way to deal with all this information? Check your bank statements and come to terms with the hard truth: we’re all getting our information stolen. 38% of victims noticed fraud attempts because they were diligent enough to go over their bank statements, and only 30% of cases were thwarted due to a bank or credit card company contacting them.
Like we’ve written about before, 18% of businesses get tied-up with cyber security woes, so if you’re one of 99.99% of Canadians who buy things from stores, you’re a already a target.
Market at-a-glance 📈
BOC Indicators (Link):
BOC Prime Rate: 6.95%
BOC Unemployment Rate: 5.4%
BOC CPI Inflation Rate: 3.4%
BOC $USD Exchange Rate (Link):
Low: 1.3170 CAD [0.7593 USD]
Average: 1.3183 CAD [0.7586 USD]
High: 1.3212 CAD [0.7569 USD]
Best GIC Rates (Link):
1-year GIC: 5.60%
3-year GIC: 5.36%
5-year GIC: 5.10%
Best 5Y Mortgage Rates (Link):
Variable: 5.85%
Fixed: 4.99%
Prime Rates (Link):
TD Bank: 6.95%
BMO: 6.95%
RBC: 6.95%
Scotiabank: 6.95%
CIBC: 6.95%
National Bank: 6.95%
CRA Canadian Pension Plan Rate: 5.95%
CRA Employment Insurance Rate: 1.63%
CRA Minimum Wage per Province: Link